I am a sad man. On Sunday night, whatever the answer “nai” or “oxi” will be, the only looser will be Greek people.
If it is no, the current government due to the lack of credibility has absolutely no chance to get any agreement. Even what is/was on the table last Saturday will not be there on Monday. So, likely sooner or later, the Greek government will need to print a new currency. Greece will be definitively bankrupt with no access to international funding for likely the next twenty years.
If it is Yes, new elections would need to be organised with a big question mark about which party would be able to have a majority and enough credibility to manage the relationships with the creditors. In such case, austerity program would be implemented and Greek people will feel the pain. As you cannot ask for a country to be in austerity mode for twenty years, sooner or later issues will bring the Greek case on the top of European problem.
Still, I cannot believe the amateurism and the incompetence of this government. In six months, they destroyed the international credibility of Greece, making Greek people unpopular in all Europe. Travelling a lot, I saw the changes and I feel this is really unfair. This government is supposed to be from the left. Considering that 88% of the total Greek debt is in the hands of the international organisation, the debt has been socialised. So Mr Tsipas was just asking workers, civil servants, middle-class from Germany to Slovakia to pay for the Greek. Imagine the opposite. Instead of coming with reasonable solutions, he has been just playing the Europeans. With the referendum, he saved his reputation and whatever the answer, he will be a winner at the cost of his own country. Likely Mr Varouvakis would find a role in a TV show where he will be able to make the finger under a table. However, most of the main street people will not have this chance.
Greece needs to go out the Euro to rebuild its competitiveness, but not like that. Greece needs the agreement and the support of Europe, it needs to be backed by the ECB to limit an inevitable devaluation to 20-25%. In a different way, it is exactly what Japan did in the last two years, Yen has lost about 25% against USD. Greece needs efficient leaders able to promote proper reforms. After five years, still, most of the Greek people have to pay extra lessons or private school to make sure children are getting a proper education. No serious reforms have been implemented and Greece is exactly where it was five years ago. So many things could be done: in agriculture (wine and olive oil), in tourism (attracting luxury groups by giving concession against education and jobs), IT and education.
So tonight I am sad, angry against stupid politicians who are going to bring a country I love in a glacial night for one generation.